🔗 Share this article An Prediction Market Trader Earned $Nearly Half a Million on Wagers on Venezuela's Political Shift. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. An individual made nearly half a million dollars on the ouster of Nicolás Maduro shortly prior to it was officially announced, raising questions about potential gains made from confidential information of the US operation. Market Movement in Forecasts Bets placed on the crypto-platform, an online prediction market, that Nicolás Maduro would be no longer in control by the close of the month surged in the period preceding President Donald Trump declared on Saturday that the president had been seized. A particular user, which registered on the site last month and placed four wagers, all on the Venezuelan situation, made more than $436K from a modest bet of $32.5K. Who placed the bet is a mystery. The user had only a string of letters and numbers for identification. Probability Spikes Before News Break Market statistics shows that users put the odds of Maduro's exit at just 6.5% in the midday period of the prior Friday. Yet the market's assessment had increased to over 10% by the end of the day and skyrocketed in the early hours of Saturday, indicating a rapid movement in market sentiment right before the official statement was made. "This particular bet has all the characteristics of a transaction based on non-public details," said Dennis Kelleher. Several of other platform users also profited large payouts from predicting the capture. Political Attention Intensifies Some lawmakers are starting to take note. A new rule presented on recently would prevent public officials from placing bets on prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a bet. The Prediction Market Landscape Event-driven betting sites have surged in popularity in recent years, with users able to bet on everything from sports to current affairs. The industry were examined under the Biden administration. But it has experienced less resistance during the Trump presidency. Insider trading is against the law in the securities markets, but there are fewer regulations in the event betting arena. An official representative for a competing service said their site "has clear rules against such activities of any form."