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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability provided through current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the near future.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.

Current Realities

Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.