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New Yorkers will discover the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will determine who runs and protects the country's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against each other. The election has become an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a platform of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby end to an election that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with voters' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable comeback win, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of considered, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A New York defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on targeting the candidate directly. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent into office, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in last year, not many had known him, and in truth, few even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after video surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd